Home students now account for just over half of?all tuition fee income at UK?universities, figures show, with the proportion?plunging?at?some institutions in?the past few years.

show that home students were responsible for 66?per cent of total course fees in universities across the UK in 2016-17, but this fell to 54?per cent in 2022-23.

Jack Britton, a reader in economics at the University of York, said the downward trend reflected the decline in the real value of tuition fees and the rises in international student numbers over that period.

But the findings were concerning, he continued, because they suggested that universities were assuming that domestic fees would go up, along with substantial growth in income from international students.

ÖйúAƬ

Of the UK providers that supplied data, the vast majority (86?per cent) saw a fall in the proportion of income from home students between 2016-17 and 2022-23.

At the University of Roehampton, the value of domestic tuition fees fell from 88?per cent of income to just 46?per cent over this time ¨C the largest swing of all institutions.

ÖйúAƬ

A Roehampton spokesperson said the institution¡¯s income profile had changed in line with its strategy to diversify its student recruitment, including growing postgraduate recruitment and international recruitment.

Elsewhere, the University of Bradford, the University for the Creative Arts, the University of Bedfordshire and the University of Hertfordshire all recorded declines of between 32 and 38?percentage points.

A recent report by the Office for Students (OfS) found that 80?per cent of English universities could fall into deficit in less than three years if domestic recruitment were to stall and international student numbers decline.

The analysis estimated that UK students would be paying less than half (49?per cent) of all tuition fee income by 2027.

Dr Britton, who is also an associate director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said it was not necessarily a problem that income shares from domestic students were declining while those from international students were rising.

ÖйúAƬ

But he added: ¡°It is a concern if the sector is dependent on overly ambitious growth forecasts and/or it is not fully accounting for¡­any risk that is associated with such numbers.¡±

He said government immigration policy, exchange rates, improving international competition and other ¡°random factors¡± could all make the international student market much riskier than the domestic one.

Previous analysis by Times ÖйúAƬ showed that English Russell Group universities took 54?per cent of their total fee income from overseas students last year.

ÖйúAƬ

A spokesperson for Bradford said the figures showed that the university had sought to increase its income from overseas students within the framework set out by the government.

¡°Our home student intake has, however, fallen marginally in the last eight years, and we are taking steps to build these numbers again in future years,¡± they added.

Bedfordshire said it had exited a major partnership in January 2023, which accounted for much of the change in income.

And a Hertfordshire spokesperson said its targeted internationalisation strategy would ensure financial stability and the ability to invest in facilities and teaching and learning.

ÖйúAƬ

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com