UK universities face a?¡°critical¡± student recruitment round to?¡°remain viable¡± after the new Labour government dampened expectations of further funding, but falling application numbers, rising no-shows and more competition are leaving some leaders fearing the worst.

In her first month in post, new education secretary Bridget Phillipson has changed the rhetoric on international students and signalled her willingness to relieve the burden of regulation on the sector by?reforming the Office for Students. However, she rebuffed requests for immediate financial support for ailing institutions, and said she had ¡°no?plans¡± to?raise tuition fees.

Universities are therefore set to battle to increase student numbers after A-level results day on 15?August in order to shore up their finances, amid concerns that one or more could collapse under the weight of funding pressures.

Gary Davies, deputy vice-chancellor with responsibility for recruitment at London Metropolitan University, said the financial difficulties seen at many universities had made this recruitment round ¡°absolutely vital¡±.

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But, he cautioned, admissions had been hit by a range of factors outside the university¡¯s control, including falling numbers of international students, applicants¡¯ concerns over the cost-of-living crisis and increased competition from franchised providers.

¡°It¡¯s a really difficult recruitment round. It¡¯s the worst I can remember, and I¡¯ve been working in domestic student recruitment since the 1990s,¡± he said.

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Matthew Andrews, chief operating officer at the University of Gloucestershire, said universities saw it as ¡°critical to do well¡± with admissions this year and, as most still rely on domestic students for their main source of income, it was ¡°all the more important for the viability¡± of universities.

¡°[The] funding model is no longer working. We¡¯ve got a situation where the fee regime introduced in 2012 is essentially the one still in place, and so those fees have lost much of their value,¡± Dr Andrews said. ¡°With the measures of the previous government on international students hitting that market as well, it¡¯s clearly very difficult.¡±

In response to the pressures, many universities have launched large-scale marketing campaigns, with reports that offer grades may be lower than previous years at some institutions.

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Mike Nicholson, director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, said, ¡°By this stage in the admissions cycle, most universities will have a pretty good idea how their numbers are likely to land¡±, and therefore the focus will be on clearing.

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¡°Ucas reforms to clearing, particularly the facility for students to self-release from an existing offer, mean that there is much greater scope for applicants to?¡®shop around¡¯, particularly when the main A-level results have been issued and all university course vacancies are available,¡± Mr Nicholson said.

Mr Davies said that this year¡¯s clearing was set to be competitive and a ¡°buyers¡¯ market¡± for students, with a wider range of universities offering places, including many of the more prestigious institutions.

A Ucas spokesperson said the admissions service was expecting 30,000 courses available on this year¡¯s clearing options. Dr?Andrews said this put pressure on universities, as there was ¡°a?lot of competition from institutions for those students¡±.

Universities were also battling over a smaller recruitment pool after application figures released by Ucas showed a decline in the number of students applying to university this year. The application rate for UK 18-year-olds fell to 41.8 per cent in 2024, down from a peak of 44.1 per cent in 2022.

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For lower-tariff institutions ¨C many of?which were more likely to be facing financial pressures ¨C applications fell to 427,230 (27.6 per cent of the total) from a peak in 2022 of 453,160 (28.9 per cent). At the same time, higher- and medium-tariff universities have marginally increased application numbers compared with last year.

Applications from disadvantaged students fell slightly to 27 per cent of the total, while recent research by the ÖйúAƬ Policy Institute and Unite Students found that almost a third of incoming students were considering withdrawing their application, with the most commonly cited reason being financial pressures.

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Mr Davies said that while many believed that the change in government could have a long-term benefit to student numbers, the more welcoming environment for international students that Ms Phillipson has announced will be too late for the autumn intake.

juliette.rowsell@timeshighereducation.com