UK universities have been warned that vital recruitment of Chinese students is ¡°getting harder¡± as their ¡°super-dependency¡± on this flow takes them ¡°into new territory in terms of financial risk¡±, even though latest figures indicate Chinese numbers are back on track with long-term trends after a dip last year.

Ucas figures on applications to UK universities for 2024-25?by the January deadline showed an increase from China of 3 per cent, or 910 students, compared with 2023, when numbers fell by 4.2 per cent on the previous year.

Although only a minority of overseas students apply via Ucas, the trend will reassure UK universities, forced to?increase international student income?to?offset real-terms cuts in home student funding?while other institutional costs have risen sharply during a period of high inflation, with China in particular key for many.

Mark Corver, managing director of data and analytics at the consultancy dataHE, said that numbers for both 18-year-old entrants from China last year and for applicants this year, though showing ¡°some weakness compared?with other years¡±, were ¡°still on track with the decade-long trend¡±.

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¡°The data is not signalling ¨C yet ¨C anything dramatic has changed for this flow, despite increasing awareness of the [disruptive] potential of geopolitical differences,¡± he added.

However, Dr Corver also noted that ¡°one very striking aspect of this demand from China is the high and increasing focus on a small set of very selective research-intensive universities such as the Russell Group¡±, where Chinese students account for ¡°probably around 25 per cent¡± of institutions¡¯ total undergraduate and postgraduate fee income.

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¡°It is clear that this type of exposure to higher fee [overseas] students and those from China in particular has taken these universities into new territory in terms of financial risk,¡± he continued.

UK universities ¡°love students from China¡± given their general tendency to be ¡°low maintenance¡± on recruitment, visas, paying their fees and completion of courses, said Vincenzo Raimo, an independent international ÖйúAƬ consultant and a visiting fellow at the University of Reading, where he was previously pro vice-chancellor for global engagement.

¡°But recruitment from China is getting harder for all UK universities for a number of reasons,¡± he added.

These factors include the fact that Chinese students are ¡°highly incentivised by the state to study in so-called top-100 world universities¡±, of which there are increasing numbers closer to home in China and east Asia more broadly, Mr Raimo said.

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Chinese students¡¯ families ¡°are also increasingly becoming cost conscious and looking for value for money ¨C both in terms of costs of study and employability back home ¨C and the UK is increasingly seen as an expensive option, especially compared?with those closer to home options¡±, he continued.

Meanwhile, UK universities ¡°lower down the rankings¡±, which have traditionally recruited well from China, ¡°are now also facing competition from closer to home as higher ranked [UK] universities are increasingly playing on their turf, being more flexible on admission requirements, and entering the direct entry market¡±, said Mr Raimo.

The UK¡¯s ¡°top-ranked universities will, at least in the short term, continue to recruit very well and the majority of their international students from China both at undergraduate and postgraduate levels¡±, he went on. ¡°Those lower down the rankings will, however, increasingly have to look elsewhere for their international students.¡±

Dr Corver said of reliance on Chinese student recruitment: ¡°It is hard to believe that individual universities choose this path to super-dependency because they thought it was a good idea in isolation. These dependencies and risks are yet another example of the distortion brought about by the heavily suppressed funding levels for home students.¡±

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john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com