A number of English universities are ¡°genuinely very vulnerable¡±, with the government more likely to allow a ¡°small town¡± or London institution to fail in a ¡°variable approach¡± on support, a vice-chancellor has predicted.

Adam Tickell, who leads the University of Sussex, told a seminar hosted by the ÖйúAƬ Policy Institute and Advance?HE on the subject of the English sector regulation that universities¡¯ financial difficulties would force the Office for Students to change its present ¡°hard and brittle¡± approach to the sector.

There are ¡°some institutions who are genuinely very vulnerable¡±, Professor Tickell said.

It would be ¡°a very brave government and a very brave Office for Students¡± that would allow a university?seen as an anchor institution in its city or town to ¡°do anything other than survive¡±, he said.

ÖйúAƬ

But, giving an imagined example of a small university, he said that ¡°you wouldn¡¯t have to be so brave to let the University of Dorchester go under¡±.

With ¡°a small university in a small town where quite a lot of the population may be hostile to that institution, or an institution in London where we have massive over-provision ¨C that¡¯s not such a brave decision to take¡±, he added.

ÖйúAƬ

Professor Tickell?foresaw?a ¡°variable approach¡± and that there would also be ¡°some friendly mergers [between institutions] in the next while¡±.

He?said that ¡°a hard and brittle approach on the part of the regulator will soften. If it doesn¡¯t soften as¡­institutions get into real difficulty, the regulator will be forced actually to partner [with universities] much more effectively than they are.¡±

Labour MP Barry Sheerman told the event that the government was ¡°treating the ÖйúAƬ sector as though it is failing ¨C I don¡¯t see the failure¡±.

Questioning why the ÖйúAƬ Funding Council for England was abolished, he asked: ¡°What the hell is the Office for Students?¡± Mr Sheerman predicted that ¡°it ain¡¯t going to be around long¡±.

Rachel Wolf, a former Conservative Party and government adviser on education, highlighted the ¡°civil war¡± within the Tory party between supporters and opponents of university expansion, saying that she was surprised that Theresa May¡¯s government had allowed the ÖйúAƬ and Research Act ¨C which created the OfS and was formulated under the pro-expansion Cameron government ¨C to proceed.

ÖйúAƬ

Ms Wolf, whose mother, Baroness Wolf, is a member of the panel advising the government¡¯s post-18 education review, said: ¡°The great problem the sector faces is it is simultaneously trying to handle a regulatory structure which was all about market forces and expansion?[in] a world where you wanted as many people as possible to go to university¡­[and] a world in which actually people [in the government] think there should be more technical education and less university.

¡°We are layering them on top of each other in this extremely uncomfortable combination, which is causing major challenges.¡±

Highlighting the possibility of a?general election, she also told the sector audience: ¡°For all you¡¯re terrified about what this government might do, you should be a lot more terrified about what [Labour leader Jeremy] Corbyn might do.¡±

ÖйúAƬ

The Conservative government ¡°still does accept the centrality of universities¡­does think about research to a very large extent,¡± Ms Wolf argued.

Labour¡¯s shadow education secretary, Angela Rayner, went through further education rather than ÖйúAƬ.

Ms Wolf continued: ¡°It is not all obvious¡­that an incoming Labour government is going to care in the least about any of that.

¡°For the first time, you have a shadow education secretary, or the first time in a long time, whose pivotal, formative experiences weren¡¯t really about university.¡±

ÖйúAƬ

Ms Wolf said that most ¡°politicians are obsessed with university because it was incredibly important to them personally. They [Labour] are not going to care as much.¡±

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com