Politics could dictate when international students are allowed into Australia, as?hopes fade that many will arrive in?time for the start of the 2022 academic year.

Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia, said next year¡¯s federal election ¨C rather than coronavirus vaccination milestones ¨C could be the main obstacle to student flows.

The federal government has highlighted domestic immunisations as the key to more arrivals. Under a national plan to ease Covid-19 restrictions, students will be admitted in greater numbers once 70?per cent of eligible Australians have been fully vaccinated, up from about 26?per cent at?present.

Caps will be further relaxed when coverage reaches 80?per cent. ¡°We¡¯re getting there, with our vaccination rates increasing very rapidly,¡± the education minister, Alan Tudge, said.

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Experts say 80?per cent vaccination can be achieved by the end of this year. But Mr Honeywood said he was ¡°not optimistic¡± about a?significant influx of international students until after the election next March or April. ¡°Semester two is looking more and more likely,¡± he told the conference.

¡°Even if we get 80?per cent vaccination coverage of the Australian community, we still may have to wait because of?politics.¡±

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His comments reflect a perception that politicians are more worried about voters¡¯ ¡°fortress Australia mindset¡± than the economic carnage that the pandemic has inflicted on Australia¡¯s largest service export industry.

International education revenue slumped to about A$27?billion (?14?billion) in the 2020-21 financial year, down from A$37?billion the previous year and A$39?billion the year before that. June quarter earnings were the lowest for any three-month period since 2014.

Vice-chancellors say the worst is yet to come because of the ¡°pipeline effect¡± of a sharp decline in new international enrolments. Small businesses that cater to overseas students, such as agencies and accommodation providers, are already struggling. ¡°We really need an indicative date for international students to know when they might be able to come back to Australia,¡± Mr Honeywood said.

The Council of International Students Australia said the country risked losing more overseas enrolments. National president Belle Lim said that while foreigners already studying in Australia were ¡°still quite positive¡± about their hosts, recent surveys suggested that would-be students felt differently.

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¡°We really have to think about how we bridge the gap,¡± Ms Lim told the conference. She said Australia needed to do more to highlight the qualities that appealed to?international students, including its multicultural society and student representative arrangements that were ¡°truly unparalleled compared to competitor countries¡±.

She said foreign students stranded overseas needed to be ¡°considered distinctly¡± from their onshore peers. ¡°How do we maintain connection for students stuck offshore through absolutely no?fault of their?own?

¡°We need a compassionate response to these students in terms of student visa and migration points, looking at how can we make it fair for these students and show that Australia as a sector really cares.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com