Nerves are fraying within Australian universities, with enrolments still mired in uncertainty as the new academic year gets under way.

A trio of factors ¨C closed borders, a recession-fuelled spike in demand and federal changes to course fees and subsidies ¨C created a summer like no other for strategic planning staff. International students¡¯ unexpected tolerance for remote study generated?surprise surpluses?last year at some universities but administrators said that there were big questions over whether this?would continue. Anxiety also hovers over this year¡¯s commencing domestic students, with enrolments never really bedded down until the census date ¨C typically at the end of March ¨C when students become liable for tuition fee debts.

University of Melbourne vice-chancellor Duncan Maskell said he expected first-semester foreign student numbers to be 10 per cent lower than in 2020, and 22 per cent below 2019 levels. But with 60 per cent of Melbourne¡¯s international students now outside Australia ¨C compared?with 40 per cent last year, and negligible proportions normally ¨C enrolments could vanish come census date.

¡°There¡¯s still some risk of students deciding to withdraw or defer by 31 March or perhaps drop [subjects] as they get into first semester,¡± said Melbourne¡¯s chief operating officer, Allan Tait. He said some overseas students were still clinging to hopes of reaching Australia. ¡°We did our planning initially on the basis that borders would be open for semester two. We¡¯ve had to recalibrate our thinking.¡±

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While lower international flows will be offset by higher domestic enrolments, the increases vary across the sector.

Melbourne expects its Australian domestic numbers to rise by less than 2 per cent. But the University of Tasmania is eyeing an extra 3,000 students ¨C a 14 per cent increase ¨C to produce its biggest ever domestic student cohort.

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Federation University vice-chancellor Duncan Bentley said demand for domestic undergraduate places had risen by 15 to 20 per cent, with the Australian Catholic University estimating a similar spike.

Advance payments under the government¡¯s Fee-Help loan scheme indicate that most of Australia¡¯s 37 public universities expect their domestic postgraduate enrolments to rise, often substantially. Allocations are up by between 10 and 30 per cent at 11 universities, and by more than 30 per cent at another seven.

But advances are unchanged or lower at another 14 institutions, suggesting that Australian master¡¯s and PhD enrolments are flat or down at almost two in five universities.

Undergraduate applications lodged through the tertiary admissions centres were 7 per cent higher than last year, according to data released by education minister Alan Tudge. He interpreted 16 per cent increases in applications for courses in health and agriculture ¨C disciplines favoured by last year¡¯s?Job-ready Graduates (JRG) reforms?¨C as evidence that the fee changes were working as intended.

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But applications for similarly favoured engineering courses rose by just 2 per cent, while demand for humanities degrees rose by 6 per cent ¨C even though fees for these courses have more than doubled.

Australian National University policy expert Andrew Norton said there was no ¡°consistent pattern¡± in the data to indicate whether the JRG changes had influenced enrolments, and described admissions this year as ¡°a very complex exercise¡±.

Universities face another month of high uncertainty as census dates approach. One vice-chancellor said: ¡°We always watch new enrolments closely, but we¡¯re watching them extra closely this year.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com