Labour will be ¡°snookered¡±?by any government changes to the UK¡¯s graduate route later this month, according to a former universities minister, who also warned the sector to ¡°prepare for the worst¡±.

A?review of the two-year post-study route is due by the middle of this month?from the Migration Advisory Committee, amid?fears that the Conservatives might pledge to scrap it in their election manifesto. There are also that prime minister Rishi Sunak could move more swiftly to reduce the amount of time that an overseas graduate can stay in the UK to either six or 12 months, down from two years currently.

Lord Johnson of Marylebone, who had two spells as universities minister in Conservative administrations between 2015 and 2019, said that proposals such as these from the Tories would leave the opposition Labour party ¡°effectively snookered¡±.

¡°It either is drawn to oppose whatever measures are announced and is therefore accused of being soft on immigration, or it inherits as is likely a financial distress of a major sort across significant chunks of the sector,¡± he told delegates at the International ÖйúAƬ Forum, organised by Universities UK.

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Labour has been silent on its policy on graduate visas, leaving many in the sector fearing that it would accept or decline to challenge increased restrictions, despite many universities¡¯ reliance on overseas tuition fees.

Lord Johnson said that the opposition, which is heavily tipped to win a general election due later this year, had found itself in an ¡°unenviable situation¡± politically, but added that it was one that a ¡°grown up party¡± should be able to handle.

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Speaking at the same event, Hetan Shah, chief executive of the British Academy, said Labour faced the same ¡°tensions¡± around its international student policies as the Conservatives did, and as such warned that a much-expected Labour win might not change anything.

¡°There¡¯s a danger that if policy changes come in which we¡¯re not in favour of now, there¡¯s a strong chance of a lock-in effect after the election,¡± he added.

Lord Johnson, who is now executive chair of online learning platform FutureLearn, also urged the sector to ¡°prepare for the worst¡± in the face of some ¡°very strong policy headwinds¡±?which were already having an effect.

¡°There is a gathering storm, and this has been part of a longer-term drumbeat of negativity coming from government towards the sector,¡± he added.

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At the event held, at the University of London, education consultancy AECC Global revealed new figures which showed that 48 per cent of prospective international students would likely change their study destination if the graduate visa duration was reduced.

Lord Johnson said the priority of the sector in the meantime should be to highlight the damage that restrictions to the graduate route would do to other important government agendas ¨C a number of which were championed during the premiership of his brother, Boris Johnson.

He said restrictions would run counter to the Department for Business and Trade¡¯s efforts to promote British exports and curtail the ¡°levelling up¡± agenda, while highlighting that international students were critical to the UK becoming a ¡°science superpower¡± and to the idea of a ¡°Global Britain¡±.

¡°It¡¯s important to focus on trying to influence government policy in this very short window ¨C the sheer incoherence and self-destructiveness of this policy,¡± he added.

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¡°Concerns about immigration are real but hammering international students is not the right way to address that.¡±

Lord Offord of Garvel, the exports minister, tried to assure delegates that the government was aware of the importance of the route to the sector.

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¡°While it is appropriate we examine the graduate route, we also recognise that international students have a significant impact not only on our local economies, but also the student experience of their fellow classmates, and in aiding the UK¡¯s reputation around the world.¡±

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com