Few academics have their statistical models exposed to such searching ¨C and potentially nightmarish ¨C scrutiny as those who work on the UK¡¯s general election exit poll. John Curtice, the public face of the experts who produce the prediction, had a ¡°disturbing¡± moment as early results came in, but ultimately the exercise was proved highly accurate as it ¡°surprised the world¡± once again.

The exit poll predicted correctly that the Conservatives would fail to win a majority, estimating that they would win 314 seats. As it turned out, they won 318.

Asked whether he was pleased by the poll¡¯s performance, Professor Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said that ¡°relieved¡± might be another word to describe it. ¡°You¡¯re only as good as the last one you did,¡± he added.

For this snap election, an exit poll ¡°usually planned over six months had to be mounted in six weeks¡±, so the number one rule in preparing was ¡°don¡¯t change anything unless you have to¡±, he said.

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It was, said Professor Curtice, who once again was on-screen throughout the night during the BBC¡¯s coverage, ¡°the same methodology that in 2015 also surprised the world by saying, ¡®Hang on, it¡¯s not close, the Tories have won quite easily.¡¯ Or indeed in 2010 when we said, ¡®No, no, the Liberal Democrats haven¡¯t got more seats, they¡¯ve got fewer.¡¯ So it defies the conventional wisdom every time ¨C which just goes to show you the conventional wisdom ain¡¯t too good.¡±

Once the first handful of results were in from the North East, former YouGov president Peter Kellner suggested that the exit poll had underestimated Tory support and that a huge majority was still possible for Theresa May.

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As Professor Curtice had assistants ¡°scour the internet¡± for information on how other seats looked and reporters in the studio passed on information, he quickly became aware of the likelihood that Labour would perform more strongly elsewhere.

¡°There was a moment, which I think has been clipped [online], where I say, ¡®We should hold our nerve here.¡¯ That¡¯s because I knew of the side information,¡± Professor Curtice said.

Although analysis on the student vote is yet to be carried out, he said that ¡°what we do know is that young people in general?voted very strongly for Labour¡­We also know that [support] increased markedly during the campaign.¡±

He suggested that the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, had been ¡°picking up a concern that life is tougher for younger people ¨C it¡¯s more difficult to get a job; it¡¯s more difficult to get a house and get into the housing market; it¡¯s bloody expensive to go to university if you do have the luck to go to university.

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¡°The Conservatives did put together a coalition of Leave voters, but it wasn¡¯t enough because in some cases they were losing ground among constituencies with lots of young people,¡± Professor Curtice added.

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com