A new OECD report says rising enrolment and stagnating budgets will make it harder than ever for member countries to maintain per capita spending. Stella Hughes reports.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this week warned that in years to come, member countries will find it "harder than ever to maintain the level of spending per student".

Rising participation, it says in its annual education indicators, Education at a Glance, is no longer being offset by a fall in youth populations, which in many countries has been halted or even reversed.

Rapid increases in student enrolments within stagnating education budgets over recent years means "resources devoted to each student have in many cases deteriorated", reports the OECD. That stagnation is widespread and enduring: in 1993, the OECD average of 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product spent on education from public sources was exactly the same proportion as in 1975.

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Within that global education budget, the distribution of spending per student according to level of education shows some significant underspending relative to the average expenditure on university students. Compared to a standard 100 units per primary school child, Britain's 250 units per tertiary level student is very close to the OECD average of 253. However France falls far below the average with just 191 units per student.

"This shows that France does not have high investment in ÖйúAƬ. I think a lot of its problems arise from this - under-staffing, underpaid academics, not enough resources. It's a problem the students regularly put to the French government," noted OECD economist Norberto Bottani.

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Low proportions of per capita student spending compared to primary spending are also registered in Spain, Italy and Greece. The United States is above average at 266, while Australia rates 303 against the primary 100 measure.

For ÖйúAƬ spending as a percentage of GDP, only the US, Canada, Sweden, Denmark and Finland spend more than 2 per cent at the tertiary level from both public and private sources.

Britain and Germany (1.2 per cent), France, Austria and Luxembourg (1.1 per cent) cluster below the country average of 1.5 per cent, which Ireland tops at 1.6 per cent.

But when countries are rated according to direct public expenditure on ÖйúAƬ, Britain's 0.7 per cent of GDP is the lowest in Europe. Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece spend 0.8 per cent, while Germany and France spend 0.9 per cent. As Education at a Glance notes in its introduction, these "inputs" have to be compared with "throughputs" - "how much is spent on each level of education and who passes through it".

However, the publication of a student survival indicator has once again proved too sensitive and the data does not include direct comparisons of student survival as it did in its first edition in 1992. Since it was dropped, after pressure from member countries which featured poorly, the OECD educational data team has been trying to produce a new survival indicator whose calculations and handling of variables would be beyond criticism.

"Our principle is solidity. Even with a very controversial issue, if we can demonstrate that the data are perfect, then we would go ahead and publish," said Mr Bottani.

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One new indicator this year does give a clear picture of graduation rates, with ratios of university graduates to population at the typical age of graduation.

Although Britain has only 8 per cent of 22 to 25-year-olds in full-time education compared to the OECD average of 15 per cent, its ratio of first-degree graduates is the highest in Europe, at over 25 per cent. France, with nearly 19 per cent of the same age group in full-time education, has fewer than 15 per cent graduates by the typical age of graduation.

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"One reason for Britain's results is the shorter duration of degree courses, but there is also a faster turnout of graduates from the British system," noted Tom Healy, of the OECD's Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

Another positive indicator for Britain shows a high proportion of science graduates relative to the number of 25 to 34-year-olds in the work force. Britain is rated fourth after Japan, Korea and Ireland for university science graduates.

However, a different picture emerges for mathematics and computer science graduates. Britain's non-university, tertiary-level graduates in those fields account for just 1.3 per cent of all graduates, compared to 7.7 per cent for Ireland and 15.1 per cent for France.

"This is alarming,'' Mr Bottani warned. "It is a reflection of lack of government funding for science and research. Britain cannot resist international competition for long if it does not increase its graduates in these areas.

"It is particularly alarming in non-university courses for they are the top-level technicians and specialists on the production line, people engaged in the everyday implementation of technology."

More encouraging for Britain are graduate employment pros-pects and salary levels. "UK graduates are less likely to be unemployed than the OECD average, whether recent graduates or older ones", commented Mr Healy. "Earnings for graduates in the UK compare quite favourably too."

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Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators, OECD, 2 rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, price, $50.

Education at a Glance: Analysis, price, $10.