The cancellation of exams caused by the closure of all schools amid the coronavirus outbreak could hurt the poorest students most, lead to the most prestigious universities ¡°hoovering up students¡±, or hasten the advent of post-qualification admissions, experts suggest.

In response to the?crisis, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ordered schools in England to close from 20 March and for GCSE and A-level exams to be cancelled this year, with the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments also?making the same moves.

It has been suggested that universities could instead be asked to confirm the conditional offers that they have sent out?on the basis of?predicted grades.

Alternatively, Alistair Jarvis, chief executive of Universities UK, has said that a combination of teacher assessments and previous assignments could allow awards to be granted this summer and for university admissions to?proceed on that basis.

ÖйúAƬ

Cancelling?exams will affect university admissions ¡°in a massive way¡±, according to Nick Hillman,?director?of the ÖйúAƬ Policy Institute.

It has taken away ¡°the single most important bit of information¡± that universities use, he added.

ÖйúAƬ

Universities, particularly more prestigious ones, also make more offers than they have places, based on the assumption that not everyone will achieve the grades that they had been predicted,?Mr Hillman continued.

The other problem with basing entry on any criteria not standardised nationally is that it is bad for some sets of students, Mr Hillman argued. It is well known that predicted grades are ¡°woefully inaccurate¡± for disadvantaged students in particular, he said.

Lee Elliott Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, agreed that social mobility was an important factor in admission policy. ¡°Evidence suggests the poorest students receive lower A level predictions than their more privileged peers,¡± he said.

But even if exams were taken later in the year this could affect the poorest students too, because they ¡°will almost certainly fall behind those from better off homes as they will have less support at home¡±, Professor Elliott Major added.

¡°Perhaps we will need to consider more significant use of contextual offers in university admissions to take into consideration the particular circumstances created by the coronavirus pandemic,¡± he said.

ÖйúAƬ

Mary Curnock Cook, the former chief executive of?Ucas,?said?that with universities already concerned about the loss of international students?because of the coronavirus crisis, they may want to extend their?domestic?student numbers.

¡°This could lead to prestigious institutions hoovering up students, leaving less prestigious institutions in precarious financial positions," she continued. "It could be that the government may have to introduce a light-touch number control system to prevent inequity."

There is also the question of what happens to clearing, which is considered a good opportunity for people who have changed their minds or achieved better than expected grades,?Ms Curnock Cook?said. In any of the potential scenarios discussed,?clearing would not figure, she added.

ÖйúAƬ

Ms Curnock Cook said that admissions offices are good at assessing students based on the information they have so far, including predicted grades, GCSE results and personal statements. ¡°They will have to re-sift their offers and this time it¡¯s for who they are actually going to admit. Notwithstanding staff shortages, that should be possible,¡± she said.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: ¡°We can¡¯t take everyone¡­there will be no easy route.¡±

The news would cause ¡°an almighty scramble, but in fact, we already have an almighty scramble every year,¡± he?added.

Professor Bale pointed out that the admissions system was not perfect and that the government had already ordered a review of the system. ¡°It strikes me that this is the time to grab the bull by the horns,¡± he added.

ÖйúAƬ

¡°Perhaps it¡¯s time to look at post-qualification admissions for example: if students could take the exams later in the year, say October, and admit them on actual grades in January. We know predicted grades are notoriously unreliable, so perhaps it¡¯s time to get rid of them.¡±

anna.mckie@timeshighereducation.com