The Australian government¡¯s plan to?cap international student enrolments next year appears to?have been thwarted, with the opposition confirming that it will vote against the underpinning legislation.

With the Australian Greens firmly against caps, opposition from the Liberal Party and its National coalition partners gives the bill no?prospect of?success in?its current form.

Shadow education minister Sarah Henderson said that the caps would ¡°not even touch the sides¡± of the ¡°structural issues¡± behind student migration, and that the coalition ¡°cannot support measures which will only serve to compound this crisis¡±.

The development will do little to relieve the uncertainty facing educational administrators as they struggle to nail down next year¡¯s student numbers.

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The caps have loomed as a nightmare scenario for some universities and colleges, potentially forcing them to?rescind places that international students had already accepted. The proposal would cause most difficulty to top-ranked universities that recruit tens of thousands of foreign students and private colleges with such low indicative caps that they face bankruptcy.

However, the legislation¡¯s apparent deferral means that the sector remains saddled with ministerial direction?107 (MD107), a?triaging mechanism that delays the processing of visas for students who come from countries ¨C or are enrolled with institutions ¨C deemed to pose a moderate or high immigration risk.

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Visa delays and rejections associated with MD107 have particularly affected institutions that draw substantial enrolments from south Asia and parts of Africa and Latin America. The government has promised to replace MD107, but only after parliament passes the bill to limit international student numbers.

The legislation was discussed briefly in the Senate on the evening of 18?November before debate was adjourned. Education minister Jason Clare confirmed that MD107 would remain as ¡°the de?facto cap¡± if the Senate failed to pass the bill.

¡°The National Party MPs and senators in this building¡­are quietly telling me they want this bill passed,¡± he told journalists. ¡°They know that at the moment, the way the system works [is] benefiting the big unis in the city and it¡¯s hurting the small unis in the bush. That¡¯s why I?want to pass this legislation, so that I?can help those smaller universities in the regions.¡±

The International Education Association of Australia warned that the ¡°blunt instrument¡± of enrolment caps would now be replaced by the ¡°vagaries¡± of?MD107. ¡°This will involve giving absolute visa approval preference to some providers over others,¡± said chief executive Phil Honeywood.

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¡°By just opposing the¡­legislation, the coalition is?not providing our sector with any apparent alternative policy. We¡¯re going to have a dog¡¯s breakfast situation from now until the start of the academic year¡­only a few months away.¡±

But Independent ÖйúAƬ Australia, which represents private colleges, praised the coalition¡¯s intervention. ¡°[It]?demonstrates a clear understanding of the potential damage this legislation could inflict on our¡­ÖйúAƬ system and our reputation as a premier destination for international students,¡± said chief executive Peter Hendy.

¡°This bill, if passed, would undermine years of hard work and investment in building Australia¡¯s international education reputation.¡±

The Group of Eight said the coalition¡¯s decision to oppose the bill was a ¡°welcome relief¡±. Universities Australia, the Innovative Research Universities and the Regional Universities Network said the government should rescind MD107 immediately.

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¡°Some universities, particularly those in outer suburban and regional areas¡­are on their knees due to the financial impact of this destructive instrument,¡± said Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy.

He said a ¡°vibrant ÖйúAƬ sector¡± was unachieveable without revenue from international education. ¡°This appears to be lost on both sides of politics as they continue to treat international students as cannon fodder in the political battle over migration and housing.¡±

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The National Tertiary Education Union¡¯s president, Alison Barnes, said vice-chancellors who had ¡°used the proposed caps as a smokescreen to threaten jobs must now abandon their terrible plans¡±.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com