Vice-chancellors are increasingly predicting that freezing university income at a time of rising costs makes yet another review of English ÖйúAƬ funding ¡°inevitable¡±, as institutions face the prospect of ¡°running on fumes¡±.

The government¡¯s recent, much-delayed response to the Augar review of post-18 education included the announcement of a further two-year?freeze of the tuition fee cap?at ?9,250 ¨C amounting to a freeze of at least seven years in total.

Meanwhile, universities face big increases in their costs at a time of rising inflation, including via energy bills.

Sir David Bell, the University of Sunderland vice-chancellor and former Department for Education permanent secretary, said Sunderland¡¯s ¡°cost of standing still¡± ¨C paying for ¡°current operations without a pound allocated to new staff or initiatives¡± ¨C was ¡°approaching ?10 million¡± for 2022-23.

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¡°While the number will be different from institution to institution, this is the situation that we all face,¡± he added.

He said a?future review of ÖйúAƬ funding?was ¡°inevitable unless the government ¨C and any future government ¨C is banking on a significantly reduced ÖйúAƬ sector¡±, in terms of student numbers and student experience.

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¡°That may be a policy choice, but it doesn¡¯t seem to be the articulated aspiration of either the Conservative or Labour parties,¡± Sir David said.

James Purnell, the University of the Arts London vice-chancellor, a former Labour Cabinet minister and architect of Tony Blair¡¯s 50 per cent ÖйúAƬ participation target, highlighted the fact that the?government¡¯s student finance changes?mean a heavier burden of loan repayments for the ¡°lower to middle third of graduates¡±.

¡°That doesn¡¯t feel to me like a stable system in the long run¡± and ¡°there is now a debate between now and 2025¡± on investment, he added.

¡°I think that at that point with everything we know about the UK being a knowledge economy, I think there will be a very strong case to make that that [investment in post-18 education] now needs to start going up rather than being frozen,¡± said Mr Purnell, who remains a supporter of tuition fees.

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However, others in the sector may see a chance to push ideas for a graduate tax to Labour, particularly after the government extended the loan repayment term from 30 to 40 years.

Lord Willetts, the Conservative former universities minister, argued against the idea of a review. ¡°We¡¯ve had a big review, the Augar review, which has shown there is no big attractive alternative [to fees]. What will need to happen in due course is for fee levels to start rising again¡­The sector doesn¡¯t need to start suddenly trying to redesign the HE funding system,¡± he said.

Others questioned whether a Tory or Labour government would have the appetite to raise fees ¨C certain to be an unpopular measure with the public ¨C high enough to address universities¡¯ cost pressures, without rationale from a review.

Sir Chris Husbands, the Sheffield Hallam University vice-chancellor, said: ¡°I just think the politics will always be difficult on a fee increase, and yet the sector is going to look pretty threadbare in 2030 if ?9,250 is fixed for another Parliament.?

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¡°I would put my money on there being some sort of review ¨C almost whoever wins the election, actually. A review turns ¨C or appears to turn ¨C a difficult political question into a technical one.¡±

Sir David said: ¡°Maybe not next year but certainly beyond, there is genuine risk that we start to run on fumes. What an irony after Augar was supposed to be a new settlement and put the English ÖйúAƬ system on a more sustainable footing for both students and universities.¡±

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john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com