A leading headteacher has predicted ¡°rapid growth¡± in the number of selective universities setting their own entrance exams because of an impending ¡°train crash¡± in school qualifications.

Peter Hamilton, headmaster of The Haberdashers¡¯ Aske¡¯s Boys¡¯ School in Hertfordshire, said that other ÖйúAƬ institutions were likely to follow the University of Cambridge in introducing written admissions tests as a result of the decoupling of A levels and AS levels.

AS levels have previously given universities a guide to students¡¯ performance in Year 12, but Mr Hamilton said that their likely demise would force admissions tutors to rely on internal school assessments ¡°of varying quality¡± when making offers of places, adding to concerns over the reliability of marking and comparability of exam board standards.

¡°There¡¯s a train crash waiting to happen with this lottery that we are going into; the decoupling of A levels will help not one jot,¡± Mr Hamilton told an event on admissions organised by the Westminster ÖйúAƬ Forum. ¡°There will be mistakes made because there is unreliability built into the system.¡±

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Mr Hamilton added that universities would be forced to choose from among applicants holding a ¡°ragtag mixed bag¡± of qualifications because some would still be following modular A levels of the existing style while others would be taking linear courses assessed at the end of two years; and a further group might hold other qualifications such as the Pre-U diploma.

Each of these would ¡°have different impacts on [students¡¯] learning styles¡±, the conference heard. ¡°You¡¯re not going to be sure exactly what type of student you are going to get,¡± Mr Hamilton said.

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His prediction, therefore, was that "there is going to be rapid growth in selective universities who will set their own entrance tests¡­if you look at the scenario I¡¯ve been painting, what other choice might you have if you are selecting rather than recruiting?¡±

Mr Hamilton also criticised the sharp increase in the number of unconditional offers being made by universities, arguing that it made them look ¡°desperate¡± and was likely to make students ¡°sit back and twiddle their thumbs¡±.

chris.havergal@tesglobal.com